The Art of Thinking Clearly
by Rolf Dobelli
Key Concepts
Survivorship Bias
We overvalue success by ignoring the many failures that preceded it.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
We irrationally continue a bad investment due to past expenditures.
Confirmation Bias
We selectively seek information that confirms our existing beliefs.
Availability Bias
We overestimate the likelihood of events easily recalled from memory.
Social Proof
We assume an action is correct if many others are doing it.
Framing Effect
The way information is presented significantly alters our perception and choice.
Action Items
Always consider the 'graveyard' of failures behind every success story.
Cut losses immediately; past investments are irrelevant to future decisions.
Actively seek out evidence that contradicts your strongest beliefs.
Base decisions on data and statistics, not just vivid anecdotes.
Question popular opinions and think independently, even if it feels uncomfortable.
Rephrase problems in multiple ways to uncover hidden solutions.
Core Thesis
Our minds are systematically flawed; recognizing these cognitive biases is the first step to clearer thinking and better decisions.
Mindset Shift
From trusting intuitive judgments to critically examining mental shortcuts and biases in all decisions.